India’s prospects of making it to the World Test Championship Final were bolstered on Sunday as they swept Bangladesh 2-0 in an away Test series.
India had risen to third following their first Test victory in Chattogram. But after South Africa lost at the Gabba, India reached the second spot in the WTC rankings.
After a nail-biting victory in Dhaka, they have further solidified their position on the points table. Bangladesh came dangerously close to upsetting their hopes and making history with their first Test win over their neighbours.
In 2023, India will host a four-game series against Australia. The Australians have the greatest chance of making it to the final, although they have not mathematically qualified to do so yet. If they whitewash the Proteas, they would automatically qualify for the finals; but, if they lose even once, they will be in jeopardy and will need to win at least five of their next matches including the matches against India to make the cut.
In contrast, Australia needs at least two wins and a tie against India if they lose their last two games against South Africa, which is very improbable.
The fate of India’s qualifying rests primarily on South Africa’s play in the cycle’s last four Tests. India will need to win the series against Australia if the Proteas are swept by Australia.
However, if South Africa takes either of their remaining two matches against Australia and sweeps West Indies (which is quite likely to happen), then India will need to win their series against Australia by a score of 3-1 or 2-0 in order to make the cut. When playing at home, though, India will have a significant edge.
While South Africa’s point total is still respectable, the team is skating dangerously close to the edge with so many unplayed series. They must, first and foremost, save the series from ending in a loss in Australia. Then, it won’t be too difficult to attempt to eliminate all traces of the problem against the West Indies.
Nonetheless, if they are successful in doing so, India’s series against Australia would be a virtual qualifier, since only one team may pass the other in the standings.
As a result of England’s 0-3 victory in Pakistan, Pakistan was eliminated from the tournament. While England’s Bazball strategy helped them dominate the Test arena for some time, they were thoroughly humiliated in the Ashes, which will have lasting effects on their performance in the series. Unless India and South Africa lose their remaining games, it’s quite improbable that New Zealand, Bangladesh, or the West Indies would qualify.
Only Sri Lanka has a realistic shot of making the cut. The first step is a 2-0 win against New Zealand. After that, they’ll need Australia to do them a solid and defeat South Africa and India.
